Posted by: John Vandivier | April 4, 2013

Bitcoin: 10,000% ROI Over 10 Years?! Valuation, Analysis, Prediction.

Bitcoin will easily double in value by year’s end. It’s on the blog now its an official prediction. I don’t have time to go over the calculations but just look at the damn graph its pretty obvious (from coinbase.com/charts):

I expect BTC to exceed double today’s (April 2) price ($132) by the end of the year, Dec. 31.

Yes my predictions are conservative. So what. Haven’t been wrong yet. Better conservative than wrong.

According to Google’s Public Data service, World GDP is well over 70 T USD by now, probably just over 75 T USD:

Google’s data says the world’s econ was about 69.9 T USD in 2011, and the rough trend from 2008-2011 was 8 T over 3 years, or roughlier, 3 T per year. I will extend this trend onward in a conservative but also desirable fashion so that I end up with 100 T at some point:

70 T + 3T/year = 100T when year = 10

According to this rough model the world will have about 100 T economy 10 years from 2011. Let’s say bitcoin only gets 1%…It would be a trillion dollar economy.

Bitcoin can capture even more than that in the long run but we are in unfamiliar territory. Bottom line?

“Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.” Ecclesiastes 11:2.

Bitcoin should be one of those ventures. We recently passed the 1 B mark. According to that rough but conservative model the bitcoin economy is heading for the 1 T mark. This indicates that bitcoin still has major returns on investment to be had over the next 8 years. Ceteris paribus, if the model is correct we are looking at a price of about $92,000 per coin in 2021. Knock some of that out due to inflation from mining and knock a bit more out for kicks and giggles just to be on the conservative side and let’s say it’s only $9,200, or 10% of our estimate. (BTC crossed the 1 B mark when 1 coin was worth about $92.)

THAT’S STILL 10,000% ROI OVER 10 YEARS. AND THAT’S BEING ON THE SAFE SIDE LIKE I ALWAYS DO.

Like most growth curves, I expect that the growth will be explosive at first and level off later. It wouldn’t surprise me if we hit $2,000 per coin by this (2013) December.

For the record that’s a bit sensational and not well mathematically backed. In other words I’m not actually making that prediction. I am only showing you a possibility. However I am highly confident of the price doubling by year’s end.

Now have a video since I always have a video and I haven’t posted one yet. Jon Matonis is a genius writer for Forbes magazine and is a bitcoin information authority. This video is just a flat out great update on bitcoin since the events in Cyprus and he also addresses the bitcoin vs gold and bitcoin vs austrian theory questions:


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